Dallas Stars Game 2: The Good and the Bad

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Dallas Stars defeat the Washington Capitals 2-1.

Shots: Dallas 21, Washington 26

PP: Dallas 0/2, Washington 1/3

Hits: Dallas 26, Washington 28

Faceoffs: Dallas 25, Washington 27

Blocked Shots: Dallas 14, Washington 10

The Good:

Penalty kill- The PK was strong after giving up the first goal to Ovechkin and the Capitals. They simply gave Ovechkin too much room to shoot and watched passes. On the second penalty kill, the Stars did a great job of winning puck battles and clearing the zone efficiently. I counted 3 clears, a save by Kari and one shot allowed. The final kill was thrown off when Peverley fouled up an easy clear leading to two shots on goal nearly tying the game at the buzzer. Other than the failed clear, they blocked a shot, clear the puck once and Fiddler single-handedly killed 11 seconds by winning battles along the boards against three Caps in their own zone.

This is from the first PK, seconds before Ovechkin scored. You can see how much room he was left with at the top. The middle was taken away, but if the puck could somehow make it to Ovechkin...

Washington goal #1- Green collects the puck near the blue line and passes it to a wide open Ovechkin parked in his usual power play position in the right circle for the goal. 

The PK looks the same as the first photo, but this is better in that the focus is on Ovechkin. Also more emphasis was put on stopping passes across the middle. Two passes across the middle were actually stopped or deflected on this PK. 

Chiasson- He finds a way. It’s as simple as that. He just finds a way to get the puck in the net. Chiasson is more than just a player with a nose for the net, though. His puck support in his own zone and throwing a hit along the boards led to a turnover which prompted the 3-on-2 that he eventually scored on. Several times Chiasson was seen hustling back to his zone, using his body to protect the puck in the neutral zone, or entering the offensive zone with speed.

Chiasson is in the bottom left corner of the picture. He is the one on the right. Here, Chiasson's puck support on the backcheck led to a turnover. He skated into the zone and put a body on his man which knocked the puck loose.

A 3-on-1 ensued with Whitney crashing the front of the net occupying both Washington defenders. Chiasson and Eakin were left open to set up the play. 

Dallas goal #2- Eakin entered the zone, passed the puck back to Chiasson and then fired the puck on net when Chiasson returned it to him. The rebound bounced out front, and Chiasson's nose for the net puts him in position to net the game-winner. 

Chiasson's celly.

Backchecking forwards- This is big result of the new emphasis on defensemen pinching more this season. It’s a love/hate relationship. A couple of pinches led to offensive opportunities, including the Cole goal in the first period and another great chance for Cole in the third. On the other hand, it also led to a few breakaways or odd-man rushes the other way. Cole eliminated what could’ve been a 2-on-0 and an earlier backcheck turned a 3-on-1 to a stifled 3-on-3.

My favorite defensive play of the game. Daley stretched out on the ice to block a pass through the slot on a 2-on-1 break. 

Cole came back in the zone and helped turned a potential 3-on-1 into a 3-on-3.

The best backcheck of the night. This could have easily been a 2-man breakaway, but Cole's backcheck resulted in a rushed shot that hit the post and went out of play. 

Cole- Everything mentioned about him the above paragraph plus his solid goal in the first period.

Dallas goal #1- Robidas makes an aggressive pinch along the right wing boards to keep the puck in the zone. Benn gets the puck behind the net to Seguin who makes a quick-look behind-the-back pass to a wide open Cole in the slot.

The Bad:

Power play- They weren’t as bad as Thursday night against the Panthers, but there needs to more from the man advantage. I counted 7 clears, 3 blocked shots, a shot off the post, a shot wide of the net and a short-handed chance for the Caps on the two power play opportunities from the Stars.

Leaving the point open- As Razor pointed out, the Stars did not do very well against shots from the point. They did much better than last season at taking away the middle of the ice and keeping most of the shots and players to the outside, but shots from the point can be just as dangerous if left completely wide open. I noticed four players below the faceoff dots several times in the game leaving the points wide open.

Just an example of the Stars taking away the middle, but leaving the point wide open.

Lines seen tonight:

Benn-Seguin-Cole

Whitney-Eakin-Chiasson

Horcoff-Fiddler-Nichushkin

Garbutt-Peverley-Roussel

Gonchar-Goligoski

Dillon-Robidas

Daley-Jordie Benn

PP- Benn-Cole-Chiasson-Seguin-Gonchar

PP- Horcoff-Eakin-Nichushkin-Whitney-Goligoski

PP- Whitney-Peverley-Eakin-Daley-Goligoski

PK- Fiddler-Horcoff-Jordie Benn-Daley (Robidas in the box)

PK- Eakin-Chiasson-Jordie Benn- Daley (Horcoff in the box)

PK- Peverley-Roussel-Robidas-Dillon (Horcoff in the box)        

PK- Peverley-Fiddler-Daley-Robidas (Seguin in the box)

Notable Notes:

Washington scored on this play but it was disallowed because it was deemed Backstrom interfered with Lehtonen.

Hit of the night: Ovechkin destroyed Robidas in the first period.

Stars hit of the night: Dillon with a big hit off a suicide pass in the neutral zone during the third period.

Whitney had a few open chances on the night and this one was set up by Chiasson behind the net.

A big shot by Ovechkin that hit off the post and off Lehtonen's leg. You can see the puck between Lehtonen's legs, but Dillon was in position to get the puck out safely.

This was one of several Caps shots off the post. Lehtonen didn't see it until after it hit the iron.

Another one of Whitney's great (missed) chances. He stole a d-to-d pass, but slapped the puck right into Holtby's chest. 

Peverley had two wide open tip-in chances but missed both.

Peverley bounced this chance off the far post during the Stars' second power play.

Part of the mayhem at the buzzer. A shot/pass deflected off Daley's stick and forced Lehtonen to make a big shoulder stop. 

Lehtonen then had to make two stops on the rebound as time expired to seal the victory. 

A funny call by the ref. He was mid-conversation with Horcoff when he made this call. 

Dallas Stars Game 1: 4-2 Loss to the Florida Panthers

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New season, same story.

[This season, for games I actually attend, I will just be putting up brief opinion points along with breaking down the roster and special teams.]

What bothers me the most about this game, is that I truly believe the Stars are better than how they played and definitely better than the Panthers overall. They were extremely sloppy and all over the place the game. The Stars had a decent start to the season on faceoffs as they won 38 of 71 draws, and they doled out more hits (26-12), but they could never establish an offensive rhythm. The Panthers took more shots (39-27), blocked more shots (24-10) and gave the puck away less (5-8). 

The defense had the same exact problems it did last season: sloppiness with the puck, dumb turnovers in their own zone, ill-advised pinched in the offensive zone leading to break the other way and risky passes out of the zone. They seemed to allow Florida a lot of healthy real estate in the slot. The few times the Stars kept the Panthers to the outside, they would give up a centering pass off the wraparound or a wide open shot from the point.

On offense, the Stars simply weren’t clicking. They weren’t aggressive. They weren’t attacking the net often enough. Shot selection was bad. Rebounds were there to be had, but the Stars were constantly out of position. Centering feeds were constantly attempted and rarely succeeded. Drop passes failed most of the night. Shots from the point struggled to get through the first defender.

The Stars seemed very hesitant when it came to passing. Most passes seemed off either in delivery or reception, especially in the neutral zone. Entry into the Florida zone was ugly. Simply ugly. The stars either lost the puck on a dump in, waited too long until players were stacked at the line or they attempted a pass through two defenders to get it to someone along the wing.

Roster breakdown:

The veterans were disappointing tonight.

Fiddler was the best of the veterans. He was constantly in on the action whether as a shot, a pass or simply attacking the net.

Horcoff was invisible most of the game other than on the PK.

Gonchar was the worst defender of the night. A couple of terrible pinches along the offensive blue line ended up in a breakaway or 2-on-1 for the Panthers. He had several chances to shoot from the point (full strength and power play), but simply couldn’t get it at the net, let alone on net.

Goligoski made a couple of bad plays in the defensive end (one leading directly to a goal against), and Daley was relatively invisible.

Whitney didn’t show much of his wizardry with or without the puck, and he seemed far removed from a lot of plays.

Seguin was OK, but not much more in my opinion. He shows some great bursts of speed and took some shots at the net when the Stars were in need of it.

Jamie Benn made some great plays with his stick-handling in all three zones, but there were several lapses in his game. There was a single shift where I counted three failed opportunities to clear by him alone. He turned over a couple of drop passes and a couple more near the blue line on a zone entry.

Cole was good in that he crashed the net repeatedly (even flipping over Thomas once) and pushed forward strongly on rushes. His penalty to negate the one decent power play the Stars had in the third period was a definite buzz kill and momentary brain lapse.

Eakin was OK, maybe even below average, but he was clearly not playing to the level we are used to seeing him play. He struggled controlling the puck and wasn't very effective on the forecheck. Even on defense he seemed overpowered and out of position.

Roussel and Chiasson had strong games, Chiasson more-so offensively. He just has a nose for the net that is undeniable. Chiasson's best play was when hustled back and broke up a short-handed Florida breakaway on an early Stars power play. Roussel again hustled all over the ice, stirred the pot a bit and won a fight. 

Mueller was a non-factor except one pass he made across the slot that resulted in a shot barely stopped by Tim Thomas’ right shoulder.

Jordie Benn was quiet, but steady tonight. Compared to last season, his play seemed stronger and smarter. 

Nichushkin definitely seemed like he will need time to adjust to the NHL. He had his moments where he gathered steam and skated up quickly with the puck as he made a few moves through players. However, he seemed to try to do things himself too often, and every time he did, he never made it further than 5 feet into the offensive zone before he knocked off the puck or it was poked away. He used his frame decently and did position himself well a few times on defense. It is clear he has size, speed and talent, it’s just a matter of time before he gets acclimated and really takes off.

Lehtonen was solid in net for the most part. He can’t be counted on to be the complete hero every game. He is great, but there is only so much he can do when there are defensive lapses all around him, turnovers in close and nearly 40 shots coming at him.

The penalty kill was pretty good. There was a lot of movement and a lot of crossing up near the point in comparison to last season. Clearing still seemed to be a bit of an issue, and I still miss Eric Nystrom.

The power play was atrocious. I never felt the Stars power play had a real advantage and a grip on the situation the whole game. The first power play was the worst. They barely had possession of the puck and were nearly scored on if Lehtonen didn’t come up huge.

Overall it was a disppaointing game for the Stars, but this is just the first game. It’s going to take a while to get the chemistry going, to clean up the defensive zone and be a more cohesive unit in general. There is still a lot to look forward to and a lot of time to get things going. The season is still young.

Lone Star Swap: Dallas Stars Trade for Seguin, Peverley and Horcoff

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Wow, what a day. In just a few hours, the Dallas Stars changed their roster to be nearly unrecognizable from the one we last saw on the ice April 27.

The Stars had some glaring needs: lack of center depth, sorting out the logjam on defense and settling the backup goalie position were the easiest to spot, but (true) center depth was easily the most troubling.

After losing Brad Richards in the summer of 2011, Jamie Benn was moved to center in order to fill the void at center. Benn wasn’t the strongest on the dot, but he was serviceable there. His first season would understandably be rough trying to learn a new position and the art of the faceoff, but in 2013, Benn won only 46.1%. As the team’s number one center, it’s troubling to say the least. Additionally, Cody Eakin won 48.6% and the Stars’ best faceoff taker, Vernon Fiddler, won 51.5%. Compare that to most teams’ top draw-winner (usually over 55%) and it’s easy to see why Dallas ended up 27^th in the league in faceoff win percentage with 47.2%. If you don’t win faceoffs, you don’t control the puck, simple as that.

So, how do the Stars rectify this? That was the burning question heading into the offseason. It’s safe to say Jim Nill took care of that Thursday, and it should no longer be a concern heading into next season.

The Stars were reportedly in the hunt, and even a front-runner at one point, to land the recently bought-out Vincent Lecavalier. A last-second swerve took him to Philadelphia, but Nill maintained that the Stars would find other ways to try to add two centers in the offseason. His next move was a blockbuster.

Trade #1: Dallas acquired Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverley and Ryan Button from the Boston Bruins in exchange for Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith, Matt Fraser and Joe Morrow.

Trade #2: Dallas acquired Shawn Horcoff from the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Philip Larsen and a 7^th-round pick in 2016.

The first trade was shocking to say the least, and at first glance it hurt a little to see Eriksson’s name in the trade. After a second look and breaking down the trade, the swap was fair and Dallas has a good chance at coming out on top. The Stars got what they needed and the Bruins got what they wanted.

Seguin is naturally a center, but was moved to the wing in Boston due to Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci and Peverley taking the draws. He was moved to wing in order to keep him in the top 6, at least most of the time.

Peverley turns 31 on July 8 and has a cap hit of $3.25 million for the next two seasons. He won 58.4% of the faceoffs he took on the league’s best faceoff team. He tallied 18 points in 2013 and hit the 40-point mark each of the three seasons before. Oh, and both Seguin and Peverley are right-handed shots, which the Stars need.

Seguin went cold in the 2013 playoffs, tallying one goal and 8 points in 22 games, but he was more productive in the regular season. Seguin scored 16 goals and 32 points in 48 games in 2013, and he scored 29 goals and 67 points the prior season. One of the most attractive aspects of Seguin’s arrival in Dallas is that he is only 21 years old and is set to be paid $5.75 million for the next six seasons, so he is still heading to his prime and has a long contract set. He was selected second overall in 2010 and has amazing playmaking skills, good speed and an accurate shot.

He may have struggled in the postseason and Claude Julien’s statements that he has to learn how to be a professional may cause worry, but remember he is 21. What kid with superstar potential doesn’t enjoy partying? Which youngster with lots of potential and expectations doesn’t go through ups and downs? In time I believe he will progress and if he even comes close to hitting his potential, the Stars win this trade.

Peverley and Horcoff help solve the second-line center issue. Without the trades, Eakin could have been moved up, and Fiddler would have probably centered the third line leaving a rookie or grinding vet to try the dot on the fourth line, but when you compare that lineup against almost any other lineup against the NHL, the matchup doesn’t look very good for Dallas.

So now Seguin can return to center at the top line with Benn on his left and possibly Nichuskin on his right. Peverley would have been slid onto the second line with Eakin on the third if Horcoff wasn’t added. Now, with Shawn Horcoff in the picture, the Stars have five centers so we wait to see if Fiddler will be moved.

Horcoff, 34, was captain of the Edmonton Oilers, and he tallied 12 points in 31 games this season. He isn’t much in terms of production, but his leadership and faceoff capabilities provide a boost for the Stars. He managed to win 49% of his draws on the league’s worst faceoff team. He will be paid $5.5 million for each of the next two seasons, enough time to allow some youngsters to develop, namely Radek Faksa.

Not much is expected of Ryan Button, but he will help fill out the prospect pool in the minors. He’s a 6-foot tall left-shot defenseman with room to improve at the ripe age off 22. He was picked 86^th overall in 2009, but hasn’t produced much since. He split time between the AHL and ECHL last season, netting 8 points in 58 games while going -13. He’s fallen off in production over the years, but if he can regain his form, the Stars have another decent defensive prospect.

It all sounds good, but in order to get something of value, you have to give up something of value. Dallas only gave up one full-time roster player, an in-and-out of the lineup defender who struggled against the big, strong Western forwards and three prospects. Seeing Eriksson go hurts. Real bad. He was my favorite player on the Stars after Neal was traded, and his play at both ends of the ice will be terribly missed. He struggled in the lockout-shortened season, but he was consistently a 70-point winger beforehand. I’m going to miss his quiet awkwardness off the ice and his slick play on it. His two-way play and team-first mentality will help him fit in perfectly with the Bruins.

I was really becoming a big fan of Reilly Smith. He had speed, some good stick-handling and a decent shot, but just wasn’t able to produce. He was good at creating chances and getting in the right places on the ice. He just couldn’t put the puck in the net as often as the Stars would’ve liked. He reminded me of a mix between young Eriksson and young Neal. Fraser was unbelievable in the AHL (37 goals in 73 games), but he seemed out of sorts in the NHL. He has a great shot, good speed and a big body, but seemed nervous or a little off when he played for Dallas.

Stars fans didn’t get to see much of Morrow after he was acquired from the Penguins this season. Because of that, it doesn’t sting too much to lose Morrow, but if he hits his expected top-four potential it might then. The Stars were able to part with Morrow since their defensive cupboard is stashed with the likes of Oleksiak and Connauton among many others. Larsen hasn’t lived up to his offensive potential and was a defensive liability many times this past season. He’s only 23, so he still has time to develop, but he seemed small on the ice. He was pushed around easily, targeted for big hits and gave up dangerous turnovers in the Dallas zone.

One thing is for sure with these trades: Nill means business. He is patient and knows when to pounce and isn’t afraid of taking calculated chances. He’s done wonders since coming to Dallas and this is only the beginning. He’s dedicated to get the Stars into the playoffs next season while still keeping them primed for the future.

For now, we watch the clock tick down until free agency opens midday Friday. And we await Nill’s next genius move to help make the Stars winners. Now and in the future. 

2013 Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Boston Bruins

This is it. The best team of the regular season versus the best team of the playoffs. shutdown defense versus rapid-fire offense. Brawn versus skill. It is arguable that both teams faced a glimpse of their rival in the conference finals, but I would like to add that that’s all it was. A glimpse.

For Boston, there are a lot of similarities between Pittsburgh and Chicago, but the little differences are what will make this a completely different series. Yes, the Penguins had a more star-studded depth, but Chicago’s depth is filled with role players excelling this postseason. They’ve been tallying points series in, series out. Whereas Pittsburgh seemed to go out of their way to hit Boston more, Chicago is more selective with their hitting. They tend to hit more to keep the puck in the offensive zone, specifically pinching in near the blue line. The Pens were seemingly throwing their bodies around thinking they could throw Boston’s game back at them. Chicago is faster and attempt stretch passes much more than the Pens. Chicago has a stable goalie and team defense that possibly only the Bruins don’t envy. Pittsburgh did have arguably the two best players in the world and several big names in tow, but I just can’t see Chicago’s best players getting shut down the same way. Chicago dominated the Wild, survived the Red Wings and handled the Kings mostly without Kane and Toews. Kane finally woke up in the last couple of games against the Kings. So imagine the high-flying Hawks of the past three rounds with a fully engaged and confident and a productive Toews.

Like the Bruins, the Kings were a big, physical team backstopped by a tremendous goalie, strong defense with scorers and skilled players sprinkled throughout their lineup. Both teams had good production from the blueline and strong performances from young, inexperienced players. But the Bruins are bigger than the Kings. They have better team defense and the ability to completely shut down the best of the opposition. They win a lot more faceoffs because their centers are some of the best in the game. Their depth is more productive and more effective in their roles. Lastly, the Bruins have the hottest goalie this postseason, and we’ve seen before what a hot goalie can do to lead his team to the cup. The biggest difference between the Kings and Bruins is their forwards’ two-way play. They dominate on faceoffs, possess the puck well, attack the net and when the other team gets the puck, will skate back just as hard and play defense. Boston has the ability to agitate the Chicago forwards with defense during play and the ugly stuff between whistles. It may be enough to frustrate Toews and Sharp off their games as evidenced in the Wings and Kings series.

The questions. Which goalie will slump first, Rask or Crawford? Both have been stellar and silenced any doubters through the first three rounds. But whichever team comes out the champion, will need their goalie to stand on his head. Crawford has let in a few soft goals that make me question whether or not he can outplay Rask. Can Chara shut down any or all of Kane, Toews, Sharp and Hossa? Sharp has been productive, Kane has finally awoken, Hossa has been steady and determined, Toews hasn’t produced, but he’s done everything else well. Each of the offensive stars of the Hawks bring something to the table, so even if Chara shuts down one or two of the players mentioned, Chicago is more than capable to bounce back with others. Who will win the special teams battle? Chicago’s PK has been (almost) perfect. Boston’s PP has been terrible. Chicago’s PP has been underwhelming, and Boston’s PK has been strong. Something has to give. It’s much easier to believe that Chicago’s power play will finally come to and be a positive factor. Which’s teams defense will be a bigger factor at both ends of the ice? Boston’s defense maintained offensive production in the conference finals, but they were unbelievable in their own end. Chicago stumbled a few times in their own zone last round, but pinched in well and produced in the offensive zone.

As deep, skilled and dangerous as the Blackhawks are (and as much as I want them to win), there’s something about the Bruins this postseason. Their drive, team hunger and detailed focus at both ends of the ice seemed to be something else this postseason. It’s a coin flip really. Chicago can relentlessly attack the Bruins and work together on defense to squeeze Boston into submission, or the Bruins can hammer the Hawks with big hits, big shots and big stops as they have all postseason. 

Even though my gut tells me the Bruins will win in 6, I have to go with the heart and say

Chicago in 7

Dallas Stars Unveil New Logo and Jerseys

The Dallas Stars began (or actually continued) their re-branding under owner Tom Gaglardi Tuesday night. Defending Big D did a great job covering the event and have some good reads on the details along with hundreds of reader comments so you can see what fellow fans think of the new look. I'll provide a glimpse and a bunch of photos with my thoughts on the jerseys. Pictures below are via @icethetics on Twitter. 

• The Dallas Stars will retire Mike Modano's #9 on March 8, 2014, when the Stars host the Minnesota Wild. 

• A coach has not been hired yet, but Nill was headed north to interview a few candidates. Most likely Dallas Eakins and Alain Vigneault. Hopefully not John Tortorella. 

Personally, I like the new jerseys. Yes, hardcore fans will probably hate the new look, but this is about re-branding and a new beginning under a new owner. I agree that there wasn’t much wrong with the old Stars logo. They could’ve just updated it. And yes, they could have brought back the classic green-and-black jerseys from the Cup-winning game that everyone seems to love. But Gaglardi wanted a new look, logo, color, etc to be the team’s identity going forward. I think they will grow on you with time if you don't start off liking them. At least we can all agree they are better then the current all black or all white DALLAS jerseys. 

The color, named “Victory Green,” is amazing. It’s a unique green with pop. (Unique as in no one else in the league comes close… as long as it’s not St. Patty’s Day.) Green is what the fans asked for, and green is what they got. It seems like there is too much green and too much white on the jerseys, but yet again, they look great when worn. Laces are such a great touch. 

The logo seems a bit too simple at first, but take a look at the Original 6 logos. Simple, classic and amazing. Dallas’ new logo seems a bit off on a screen, but on a body it looks much better. The D really stands out and the logo looks smooth on a worn jersey. On screen, I was way too distracted by the jumpy beveling/layering at the bottom of the D. it seemed cut off. Again, it doesn’t look bad at all when worn.

The shoulder patch is great and can easily translate to the main logo on a 3^rd jersey. It would be very much like Minnesota, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, etc, but still very nice.

The logo on the pants is another great piece. This also is a strong alternate jersey logo possibility. 

One big thing that I think needs to be added to strengthen the jerseys is an outline on the numbers and names.

Merchandise on sale, this picture via @FSSW_Girls on Twitter.

So... What do you think of the new look?

2013 Playoff Predictions: Round 3 (Conference Finals)

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(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Los Angeles Kings

There is now a blueprint to beating the Chicago Blackhawks: aggressive two-man forecheck, frustrate Toews and lots of physicality. The Kings are more than capable of doing all three. The Kings had a strong forecheck that gave the Sharks fits last round, and they can put pressure on the Hawks’ defenders this round. The Kings are big and tough and should be able to give the small-but-skilled Hawks problems. And who knows how to agitate better than Dustin Brown? Not too many. 

The Hawks head into the conference finals with confidence in Crawford. Yes, he has let in some soft goals and seemed shaky at times, but overall, he has been great for Chicago. Will he be able to match Quick at the other end? Niemi almost did match him, but it wasn’t enough. Crawford has to be good, but his defense has to be even better. As a unit, they took a slight step back against the Wings. Their outlet passes weren’t very smooth, they jumped up on offense a bit too deep a few too many times and were beat behind the net a lot. They did well on rushes (for and against them), but they need to be stronger on the puck and more efficient at getting out of the zone. 

Chicago’s PK is almost perfect, but the Kings have several big players to set in front of Crawford. Pair that with a defense who has been rifling shots well from the point and it looks like Chicago’s PK can be solved. It falls to Chicago’s power play to get better if they want to advance. Yes Chicago netted PPG’s against the Wings, but most of the time they couldn’t even enter the zone and when they shot or dumped it in, were quickly beaten to the puck and left to chase it down the other end. Toews and Kane have to step up their game and the PP has to click to push Chicago through to the finals. 

The Kings are red hot when they need to be, again. Quick is far and away their leading Conn Smythe candidate. Both teams have a strong top-6, but have been gifted with a healthy amount of scoring from their bottom 6. I said before the playoffs that the hawks are great, but I am afraid they can be handled by a physical team. And I think this round will show exactly that.

Prediction: Los Angeles in 7

(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (4) Boston Bruins

The beast may have awoken. After a few scares against the Islanders and Senators, the Penguins could show that they are the team everyone expected them to be since the trade deadline. but it all comes down to their goaltending and defense. Their leadership, depth and determination has been critical and improved through each round. They can seemingly score goals at will. Their forward depth is the scariest of the remaining teams in the playoffs. 

The Penguins are the highest scoring team in the playoffs, but they now meet a very big, tough defensive team. The Bruins surprised many by replacing three veteran defensemen with rookies and not missing a beat on the ice. Hamilton, Bartkowski and Krug have stepped up big for the Bruins and will need to continue to do so if they have any chance to beat the Penguins. Chara versus Crosby sounds somewhat manageable perhaps, but there’s still Malkin, Neal, Iginla, Dupuis and Kunitz to remember, and there’s still more. Rask has been stellar so far, and as true as it is that he doesn’t have much competition at the other end (unless Fluery wakes), the fact is this is the toughest he can face this postseason. 

Boston might be able to hold Penguins to lower scoring than they’ve been used to the past two rounds, but it won’t matter if they can’t get their offense to wake up. Of course Bergeron and Lucic should lead the way, but Seguin needs to step up. And it’s time for Jagr to show up on the score sheet more. As seen with the Islanders and Senators, the penalty box will have to be avoided as much as possible for the Bruins to have a chance at surviving. The Penguins’ power play is lethal and full of options. It feels like a power play for them is almost a guaranteed goal more often than not. 

What I’ll be looking at closely is the Penguins defense and goaltending. They’ve been ok, just ok, so far. Pittsburgh has been in too many high-scoring games with lower-ranked teams and they now meet a team that can score goals AND shut them down. If the Penguins continue to play sparingly on defense and have less-than-stellar goaltending, this series will end up going to the Bruins, no matter how gifted the Pittsburgh offense is on paper.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 7

2013 Playoff Predictions: Round 2

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(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Detroit Red Wings

Don’t let the playoff seeding fool you, this is going to be a great matchup. The team that won’t go away easily versus the team that usually puts teams away easily. Chicago’s key edge is in depth, and as long as Crawford keeps playing the way he did in the regular season and the first round, Chicago should come out on top. They are evenly matched as skilled, possession teams with some super star talent and question marks in net. Chicago’s defense is notably stronger in this matchup. Also, expect the Blackhawks’ power play to come to life as it will be instrumental to moving on in this series. Detroit’s special teams are dangerous as well and don’t underestimate Detroit’s ability to find ways to win similar to Chicago. The return of Bolland and Helm to their respective teams will provide a boost, but even Helm’s return is questionable whereas Bolland will be in the lineup for game 1. The scariest aspect of Chicago is that they easily handled Minnesota without Toews or Kane scoring a goal. It’s tough to imagine both of them going two full rounds without finding the back of the net. And this will be the last time they play each other outside of future finals as Detroit will be changing conferences next season with the new league alignment plan.

Prediction: Chicago in 6

(5) Los Angeles Kings vs. (6) San Jose Sharks

Another balanced matchup in the West. Big, physical teams with strong goaltending, a handful of scorers, versatile defensive units, effective role players and a good mix of veteran leadership with youngsters. Oh and a division rivalry, too for added nastiness. The Sharks were great against the Canucks, but this series won’t be anywhere near as easy. They won’t be able to overpower the Kings and their depth can be matched. Not to mention the mess in net for Vancouver is the complete opposite of an in-form Jonathan Quick. Quick looks to be back to his Conn Smythe/Vezina candidate ways, stealing wins and earning shutouts in tight games. Again, the Kings look to be waking up at the right time, and seem poised for another deep playoff run. Is this yet another year where the Sharks look promising, but fall to the annual choke-fest that has haunted them for far too long?

Prediction: Los Angeles in 7

(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Ottawa Senators

I consider the Senators the biggest underdogs left in the playoffs. What’s worse is that they face a Penguins team that was already considered Cup favorites and have now been through a wakeup call after their series with the Islanders. The Penguins are too stacked, too deep, too star-studded to fall victim to the Senators. Ottawa needs Spezza to return but until he does, the top line of Alfredsson, Michalek and Turris will be expected to lead the way. Just looking at the Ottawa’s second line shows the vast difference in depth and star power. Latendresse, Zibanejad and Silfverberg vs Neal, Malkin and Iginla. That about sums up the series. Even with Fleury flopping, Vokoun has been a tremendous fill-in, getting the all-important W in his appearances without much flash or pizzazz. He is simply getting the job done. Even if Vokoun falters, it is possible Fleury wakes up and bounces back from his first round performance. Ottawa gets the edge in net, but as good as Anderson is, he won’t able to withstand attacks in waves from the likes of Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Iginla, Kunitz etc etc. Pittsburgh was built as a Cup-or-bust team this season and they should easily make it past the Senators.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 5

(4) Boston Bruins vs. (6) New York Rangers

The unbelievable come-from-behind win in game 7 over the Leafs just might’ve been that wake up call, that spark, the Bruins needed for a deep playoff run. However, they face a determined, balanced Rangers team who won their own game 7 to be here. Not to mention they are led by one of the best captains in the league and the world’s best goaltender. If there is any doubt about Lundqvist’s abilities, back-to-back shutouts in elimination games in the first round should settle that. The Rangers are built to be a scary team with their depth, list of big-name players and strong role players. And what’s scarier is that their star players aren’t really playing to their utmost ability, or so it seems. If just Nash, Richards and Clowe play to the level we have seen them play before, this series will be over relatively fast. Even without them exploding on offense, the likes of Stepan, Brassard, Zuccarello and Hagelin have been chipping in along with others in the bottom 6. The Rangers have a strong shot-blocking defense corps and that’s without Marc Staal, who is still day-to-day with his eye injury. Boston’s biggest problem has been their offense, but game 7 against the Leafs just might have woken up their top line. They need Lucic to play like he did in game 7 for success this round. They need Krejci to keep up his offensive pace and for Bergeron to continue providing key points and strong play on the faceoff dots. And they really need Seguin to wake up offensively. Jagr was able to create chances, but not as often or effectively as Boston would like, so they will look for him to step up his game as well. Rask will have a tall task facing Lundqvist, but we’ve seen that he is more than capable of putting up a fight. He needs the defense in front of him to continue blocking shots and using their big bodies to clear the crease, but the biggest thing he needs is for the offense to wake up. The Bruins can win the Cup this year, they are built for another good run at it, but the Rangers just might be this year’s Kings.

Prediction: New York Rangers in 6

2013 Playoff Predictions: Round 1

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(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs (8) Minnesota Wild

The Chicago Blackhawks have been simply dominant this season. The Wild have given them fits during the regular season, but the way Minnesota stumbled into the playoffs coupled with Pominville’s injury can really make it tough for the Wild to keep up. Chicago is too deep  and skilled to fall to the Wild. That being said, I don’t think there is a sweep in this series. Minnesota can stave off a blowout, and maybe hang in to win a one-goal game, maybe in overtime. This series is a best test for Crawford. Many, including myself, have doubts that the amazing net-minding of the regular season will carry over. A stumble out of the gates would be disastrous, so Crawford needs to show up early and often for the Blackhawks to have a chance to win this series and the Cup.

Prediction: Chicago in 5.

 

(2) Anaheim Ducks vs (7) Detroit Red Wings

A team built for the playoffs that surprised everyone this season versus a team led by veterans stepping up at the right time. This is going to be tough. Ultimately, if the Ducks’ goaltending stays strong and they continue to get contributions from their depth players (Bonino, Beleskey, Cogliano, Winnik, etc) they have the upper hand in this series. The Ducks defense doesn’t have that superstar quality or attractiveness, but they work as a unit and are very effective led by early-season Norris candidate Beauchemin. We all know how great Datsyuk and Zetterberg are, but they cannot win this series on their own. Franzen has to step up and produce like we know he can, and role players must chip in. Brunner and Filpulla need to find the net more often, and the defense has to make up in effort and strong play what they lack in experience.

Prediction: Anaheim in 6

 

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs (6) San Jose Sharks

Vancouver is the more highly-touted team in this series, but the Sharks have the upper-hand in matchups, in my opinion. The physicality of the Sharks will be tough for the Canucks to overcome. All eyes will be on Schneider as he duels Niemi. Vancouver has the upper hand in scoring depth, but the Sharks have solid role players to counter. The Sharks have choked year after year and a look at this roster doesn’t seem that far off from that of old, but I believe they at least make it out of this round.

Prediction: San Jose in 7

 

(4) St. Louis Blues vs (5) Los Angeles Kings

Is this the year the Blues have been waiting for? When their leaders couple with developed and experienced youngsters to take them deep in the playoffs? I think it all comes down to their goaltending. Will they get last year’s Elliott or the Elliott that was sent down earlier this season? Can their goaltending hold off the deep Kings? This is Kopitar’s time to wake up. He has quietly put together a decent season, but he needs to step up to lead the Kings past the Blues. Richards and Carter will chip in, and we know Brown will do his thing (hitting, diving, scuffling). Stoll, Williams, Penner and Richardson need to chip in. The Kings defense is superb, veteran stay-at-home defensemen coupled with offensive-minded youngsters, but can they handle the huge, strong, powerful Blues forwards and their attacks in waves? Quick has to be stellar again because the Kings should be able to score on the Blues, but can they hold the Blues off the score sheet? I love Hitchcock and we know what he is capable of in terms of shutting down the opposition and picking the right times to send out the bottom 6. Oshie should be back and he’ll provide a huge lift to the offense and hitting of the Blues, who have a lot of two-way players throughout their lineup. And what I think is not talked about enough is the Blues defense. The additions of Bouwmeester and Leopold stabilize the defense and help Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk along. And who wants to face a third pairing of Polak and Jackman?

Prediction: St. Louis in 7

 

 

 

(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs (8) New York Islanders

On paper, this shouldn’t even be close, but I contend it at least won’t be a sweep. Don’t underestimate the Isles. My biggest worry about the Islanders is whether or not Nabokov can hold his regular-season form. Once Crosby comes back, the Penguins will have their full arsenal to throw at the Islanders and it will simply be too much for the Isles to handle. One thing that bodes well for New York is how loose they can play in comparison to the Penguins. Pittsburgh has a “Stanley Cup or bust” roster and all the pressure will be on them to advance, with or without Crosby. The Penguins have better depth and a stronger defensive unit than the Islanders, and obviously a much stronger top 6. Fleury has to be better than his performance in last year’s playoffs, though. Offense can carry the Penguins far, and the defense is good 9especially now that they are focused on team defense), but Fleury will be the key to winning the Cup. I believe Tavares will have a good series, but unfortunately I think their great story ends in this round.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 5

 

(2) Montreal Canadiens vs (7) Ottawa Senators

Montreal’s influx of youth and energy coupled with strong defensive play and a stellar Price in net makes Montreal scary. What make Ottawa scary is their story of the season. They started out looking strong and then were hit, and hit hard, by the injury bug. Despite losing two of their best forwards (Spezza and Michalek), their best defenseman (Karlsson) and their top goalie (Anderson) were periods of time, they managed to not only stay afloat, but stay strong and push into the playoffs. The returns of Karlsson and Anderson boosted them into the playoffs and will be tremendously helpful against Montreal. But I don’t think it will be enough. Markov is healthy and energetic this season, Subban is a Norris candidate and their youth continue to blossom alongside proven veterans. I’ve seen a number of people pick the Canadiens as their dark horse for the Cup. I don’t believe they will the cup, but I think they will make it out of the first round, at least.

Prediction: Montreal in 6

 

(3) Washington Capitals vs (6) New York Rangers

Could this finally be the year the Capitals make it to the finals? Or is this the year the paper All-Star Rangers live up to their potential to win the Cup? The Capitals are one of the hottest teams in the league and Ovechkin was absolutely on fire heading into the playoffs after an unbelievable April. The Capitals have woken up and look to make a serious playoff push, but they will have to face one of the toughest matchups in the East. Whether they were going to enter the playoffs as a top seed or an 8 seed, the Rangers are a very scary team to face in the playoffs. their goalie is one of the best in the world, their defense is solid all around (and that’s without Marc Staal), and their offense consists of All-Stars and budding youngsters. They’ve have trouble putting it all together and getting a cohesive team on the ice this season, but they got it to work near the end of the season, the right time. The Capitals need to have a big series from their goaltending and they will rely on Ovechkin contuing his MVP-worthy play as well as Green’s resurgence on the blue line. One thing is almost guaranteed: whoever emerges the victor will be hobbled and bruised after this grueling series. The Rangers have a better chance of limping out of the series and still have enough left in the tank to make a deep run.

Prediction: New York Rangers in 7

 

(4) Boston Bruins vs (5) Toronto Maple Leafs

Boston has owned the Maple Leafs of late, but the playoffs are a whole new beast. Take into account how badly the Bruins stumbled into the playoffs and all the little stories and rivalries between the two and we got an interesting series on our hands. Boston has the clear advantage in terms of playoff experience, being built for the playoffs and overall depth. The Leafs have a lot more question marks than exclamation points on their roster. Can Optimus Reim carry the Leafs to victory? Can Kessel finally wake up and produce against his former team? Can Kadri remain one of the better players for Toronto in his first playoff appearance? How will the Leafs handle the big, bruising Bruins forwards who know what it takes to win in the playoffs? The biggest questions for Boston are can their offense wake up now that it’s do or die? And can Rask maintain his Vezina-nominee goaltending standards? The Bruins will look to Jagr to step up and help ignite the dormant offense. And Lucic has to be a factor for Boston to win. The Leafs have been playing as a team and winning as a team this season. When one slumps, another steps up. They need continue to rally together and play as a cohesive unit to have any chance against the Bruins.

Prediction: Boston in 5