5 reasons the Stars will make
the playoffs:
Goaltending
One of
the most important aspects of this season for every team in the league is
having solid goaltending in such a crunched season. Goalies that usually play
72 or more games in a regular season will likely find themselves on the bench
more often in a short span than they’re used to. Every two weeks will provide a
team with at least one set of back-to-back games.
The Stars are in a good position for this season from a goaltending aspect, as long as Kari Lehtonen stays healthy. Lehtonen is a rock and extremely critical to the team’s success, but he has a very good backup tandem in Richard Bachman and Cristopher Nilstorp that can provide some good relief. If Lehtonen stays healthy, he figures to see around 40 games. Keep in mind that the Stars allowed the 9th-most shots against per game last season, so the pressure and fatigue of forcing Lehtonen to stand on his head and win or save games so often in such little time may wear him down quickly.
Special teams (Power Play
boost)
Last season, the Stars had the worst Power Play in the league at 13.5%.
With the additions of Jaromir Jagr, Derek Roy and Ray Whitney, the Power Play
gets an overhaul with many more options to tinker with. I’m not saying they
will turn into one of the top 10 Power Play teams in the league, but jumping up
from 30th to maybe around 18th
would be a tremendous improvement and provide instant results.
Every time the Stars went on
the Power Play last season, I would think to myself “great, let’s see how badly
we mess this up. Let’s see if we can even enter their zone with puck control.” The
addition of Jagr alone can bolster one unit. His control, vision and passing
will help move the puck much better and provide better scoring opportunities.
With Jamie Benn, Michael Ryder and Loui Eriksson back in the fold, the Stars
should have two decent units. And we won’t have to see the experimentation of
random 4th liners (Toby Peterson anyone?) thrown in on the Power
Play.
Youngsters step up
The Stars
are taking a major step this season toward their youth movement. Cody Eakin
should be a starter almost every night. Reilly Smith will get a real chance to
showcase himself this season. Ryan Garbutt and Tom Wandell will get increased
roles this season. Colton Sceviour and Antoinne Roussel look like they are
getting some unexpected ice time. It’s possible Matt Fraser and Tomas Vincour will
get a call up at some point this season. Philip Larsen’s role will increase
this season and Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn look to be rotated into the defensive
lineup. Add in the backup tandem of Bachman and Nilstorp in
net, and the Stars have look to have a good blend of youth throughout the
lineup this season.
Reformed top 6
When the Stars lost Brad Richards, it felt as though they lost that one player that can take over a game, the one player that can take the puck and give the team a chance to tie or win the game in crunch time. The top 6 felt broken. Benn is developing into that player and the additions of Jagr, Whitney and Roy completely revamp the top 6. Now, the Stars have two strong scoring lines. Also, the talent bumped down to the bottom 6 mixed with the energy of the youngsters getting a look this season, the bottom 6 should be more productive than last season.
Management and fans getting
stronger
Owner Tom Gaglardi seems to be guiding the team in the right
direction. His enthusiasm and dedication has brought about a sense of hope and
optimism for the future of the franchise. Recently, the Stars announced the
hiring of Mike Modano and Mark Recchi to boost the team’s off-ice talent
cupboard. Combine these factors with the new on-ice additions and another year of
experience for Glen Gulutzan, and the fans seem to buying in. The first half of
last season was embarrassing in terms of attendance. Some lower sections seemed
to only have a couple of scattered seats filled and the arena felt deathly
silent. It was the complete opposite near the end of the season, and with the
announcement that opening night against the Coyotes has been sold out, it looks
like the lockout might not have hurt the Stars’ momentum at all.
5 reasons the Stars won’t
make the playoffs
Lack of depth
Other than
goaltending, health is most critical for the Stars this season. If the Stars
fall victim to one or two injuries at specific positions, they will be in a
world of hurt. Bachman is a good backup and Nilstorp has shown promise in net,
but even combined, they won’t be able to lift the Stars into the postseason if
Lehtonen sustains an injury. The Stars are thin at center so if something
happens to Benn or Roy, some serious panic and shuffling could ensue. If both
go down, we could be watching Wandell, Eakin and Fiddler in competition to be at
least one of our top two centers. Terrifying. If Alex Goligoski gets injured, our
defense will look that much weaker, and two starting defensemen will be
rookies.
Defense
Stephane Robidas seems to be slowing down every year. Trevor Daley and Goligoski are solid top-4 defensemen, but not true number ones. Larsen is on the rise and Aaron Rome, Jodie Benn and Dillon figure to be in a revolving door. There seems to be no real strength on defense. Each defenseman brings their own elements to the unit, but as a whole, it is just lacking. And with the Stars giving up an average of over 30 shots per game, there has to be a question of how many more times can goaltending bail them out. The Stars need a true number one to help round out the unit, but until then, it looks like it’s going to be another tense year in the defensive zone.
Too much travel too quick
The Stars have the second-most miles to travel this season. And in a condensed
48-game season filled with eight back-to-backs and three 3-game road swings, it
could be too much for them to overcome. All the new faces, the lack of a
training camp to establish Gulutzan’s schemes and the lack of chemistry in the
lineup can end up truly hurting the Stars.
Lack of toughness
I alluded
to this in my previous post, but the Stars have turned in most of their grit
and toughness for skill and speed. Will the lack of a true enforcer and the end
of the “pesky Stars” hurt this season? In a shortened season, gritty, grinding,
ugly hockey is expected so next season may be when we really get to see the new
style take flight. For this season, a lot will be put on the top 6 to score and
the top 4 on defense to play beyond their abilities. Generally speaking the
team will have to stand up to protect each other. We know Benn can fight, but
this may be the worst season have him do so. Garbutt, Nystrom, Dillon and Rome
should provide a good amount of the physicality the stars are expected to be
lacking this season.
Growing pains
Every game
will have a playoff feel, but not too many players on the current roster have
been to the playoffs and know what it takes. As I mentioned before, I believe
this season is shaping up to be a big one in terms of the youth movement (just
wait until next season!). While it’s exciting, it’s also when we will witness
and endure the growing pains associated with putting so many youngsters into
the lineup. Having said that, player development cannot come without going
through this phase, so no matter what, this season will be a great experience
and test if the Stars stay true to playing their youngsters
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